The Beginning is Not the End

The landscape of history is scattered with the remnants of those who were a “flash in the pan.” They were there for a minute, but gone for a lifetime. They were filled with potential but failed to see it through.

What happened?

For some, it was the proverbial “second time through the lineup.” It’s that new pitcher just called up from Triple A ball to fill in a start. No one has seen his pitches and so he looks pretty good the first time around. But when the lineup resets to the top of the order, the Major League hitters have figured out his stuff and he gets rocked.

For others, it was laziness. I once talked with a man who had played basketball with some very high level players back in the day. Through summer leagues and college, it was clear that they had big time potential. But by the time of this conversation, they were walking the streets, sleeping on benches, and looking for their next fix. I asked him, “Why?” He said, “They didn’t want to work at it.”

For still others, it was distraction. Shiny coins glistened on the pavement. Colorful flowers sprang up in the garden. Cheerful sounds rang out from the playground. And decades later, all the potential lay in an undeveloped pile in the distant past.

O, what could have been.

King Saul is an interesting guy for a lot of reasons and one of those reasons is what could have been. Filled with potential, he ended a disaster.

He was a loyal son, a farmer, a good-looking guy, tall and impressive. He was simply living his life, doing his job.

Then he went looking for donkeys and along the way he found a kingdom, picked by God and anointed by Samuel.

At first, he was fearful and shy. He lacked ambition. In fact, he didn’t even tell his own family. But he was the new king, the first king of Israel.

Then, almost overnight he was transformed from this shy, unambitious farmer to a leader who quickly roused an army of 330,000 men by use of a dismembered ox.

To much acclaim, he delivered a city and was greeted with some ancient equivalent of “Long live the king.”

What a great start.

But the beginning is not the end.

Somewhere along the way, Saul turned into a paranoid maniac. He became fearful, controlling, and obsessive. And he lost everything that he had been given to him. He squandered a kingdom and died by suicide surrounded by the enemy.

Every Israelite knew the story of Saul’s failure. But 1 Samuel 11 reminds us that it didn’t start that way. The handpicked king, handpicked by God himself, had the whole world on a platter in front of him and he unceremoniously dumped it on the ground. He blew up his life and turned into a sad caricature.

In the beginning he summoned 330,000 soldiers to kill for the dignity of all Israel (1 Samuel 11). In the end, he couldn’t persuade one servant to kill to save his own dignity (1 Samuel 31).

In the beginning he was unwilling to kill those who resisted his kingship (1 Samuel 10-22). In the end, he was determined to kill the one who refused to resist his kingship (1 Samuel 18-30).

Saul’s sad life reminds us that the beginning is not the end. Today is no guarantee of tomorrow.

The bad news of life is that what you did yesterday is no guarantee of what you will do tomorrow. Just because you start well doesn’t mean you will finish well.

But the good news of life is that what you did yesterday is no guarantee of what you will do tomorrow. Just because you start bad doesn’t mean you will finish bad.

The grace of God is at work. There is a King who didn’t fail. He, like Saul, went looking for something that was lost and by so doing found a church and a kingdom. Perhaps there was something donkey-like in the ones for whom the Greater King came. But there was something Lamb-like and Lion-like in the deliverer of souls.

And because of our Greater King and his gospel of grace, your past does not have to be your master. And it will not be your guarantee.

The transforming power of God’s Spirit will not come for a moment as it did with Saul, but will come forever.

So number your days so that you may present to the Lord a heart of wisdom.

A Lesson in Bible Study

“The passage for our evening family Bible story time was Acts 20. I read:

Seated in a window was a young man named Eutychus, who was sinking into a deep sleep as Paul talked on and on. When he was sound asleep, he fell to the ground from the third story and was picked up dead. Paul went down, threw himself on the young man and put his arms around him. "Don't be alarmed," he said. "He's alive!" … The people took the young man home alive and were greatly comforted. (Acts 20:9-10, 12)

We then acted out the scene, emphasizing the truth that nothing is too hard for God—even raising the dead.

At the close, I quizzed our four-year-old daughter: “Carrie Anne, what was the most important thing you learned this evening from our Bible story?” She thought and thought, and then she said, “Close the window before you go to sleep.”

From Blaine Allen, Before You Quit, p. 24

Triumph Ye Heavens!

Triumph, ye heavens! rejoice ye with high adoration!
Sing to the Lord, to the Saviour, in glad exultation!
Angels give ear!
God unto men draweth near,
Bringing to lost ones salvation.

God in man’s nature! O mystery past comprehending!
Now is the temple thrown wide
       and the incense ascending!
Christ is the way!
We who were once far away,
Now at His footstool are bending.

Hast Thou, O Holy One, deigned of my need
       to be thinking?
Chosen me, called me,
       the waters of life to be drinking?
Shall not my mind
Fullness of blessing here find,
Deep in humility sinking?

Faithful Immanuel! let me Thy glories be telling;
Ever, my Saviour, be Thou
       in mine inmost heart dwelling.
With me abide;
Teach me to stay at Thy side,
Where the love-fountain is welling.

Gerhard Tersteegen (1697-1769)

Expanded CFP

The call for an expanded college playoff is getting louder in a few places, mostly in places where people feel that their team got robbed.

Okay, mostly in Michigan and Pennsylvania.

What has passed quietly by is the fact that every single one of the top eight teams had a chance to play their way in. In other words, we had an expanded playoff and all but one team has no complaints. And that team would have no complaints had they not lost to Pitt and Michigan (by 473 or something I think it was).

The top 4 (Alabama, Clemson, OSU, and Washington) made it in by winning games.

Take the next four in the previous CFP Poll.

#5 Michigan would have been a top four with a win at OSU. They lost. They don’t get to go on. You don’t get redos.

#6 Wisconsin played #7 Penn State. This is arguably the team that got robbed because the winner didn’t make it. My previous comments stand true that it had to be a big win, and it wasn’t. Of course, they lost to Pitt and lost bigly to Michigan. But they had a chance to play their way in and didn’t get it done.

#8 Colorado played Washington and lost. They don’t get to go on.

The consensus, correct I believe, is that the CFP got the best four teams. The teams that didn’t make it all have blemishes that prevented them from making it.

So an expanded playoff took place this year. It worked just like it should have.

There is also a renewed call for having to win your conference to get in to the CFP. This is mostly coming from Penn State, but others are chiming in as well.

Someone that I can’t recall pointed out last night that Penn State better be careful what they wish for. There is a good chance that they could go 11-1 next year with their only loss being a close game at OSU who goes on to win the B1G. I think that is the most likely scenario for next season for both teams.

And that means Penn State’s chance next year requires the ability for the committee to jump over conference champions for better teams.

In other words, the very thing Penn State wants now is the thing that will hang them next year.

I am mixed on both of these issues.

I go back and forth on whether an eight team playoff would be good. This year it worked out fine. Next year it might not.

I think an expanded playoff devalues the regular season. Michigan would have gone to OSU knowing it didn’t matter whether they won or lost; they were in either way most likely (even with the Iowa embarrassment). While a rivalry game is always big, it is less big when you don’t have to win to be the national champion.

An expanded playoff devalues the conference title games. Why play a game if all the conference winners get in anyway?

However, an eight-team playoff would give some room in seasons where teams don’t play each other, or where a deserving conference champion loses out.

Speaking of conference champions, I think there is a strong case to be made that you can’t be the national champion unless you are first a conference champion. And by and large, I think that is true. OSU should have won against Penn State, and perhaps would have except for a call or two that went against them. (Remember Meyer’s tirades about officiating? Yeah, me neither.) But OSU seems a better team than Penn State.

If the NCAA goes to an eight team playoff, perhaps they need to do away with conference title games.

In the end, college football is good because of the debates that take place. There will always be questions about whether Michigan, or Colorado, or Oklahoma, or Penn State could have beaten Clemson, or Ohio State, or Washington in a playoff. There might even be a few debates about whether any of these teams could beat Alabama. Those debates will mostly involve people too drunk to speak clearly.

In the end, we have the four best teams. Let’s line up and play football.

The College Football Playoff

The college football season is down to the end. Two weeks ago everything was a mess when the #2, 3, and 4 all lost the same weekend as Washington lost to USC, Clemson lost to Pitt on a last second field goal, and Michigan lost to Iowa on the same thing.

Now it’s the final weekend and the playoff picture has been significantly clarified in the past few weeks as Louisville and Michigan stumbled to the finish line.

Both were, at some point, considered among the top 4. Some thought Louisville was better than Clemson even though Clemson beat them. Louisville put that argument to bed when they got embarrassed at Houston.

Michigan was the best team in the country according to some, or at least the only team that could challenge Alabama. Then they lost to Iowa.

Yes, you read that right. Iowa.

Losing to Iowa isn’t the worst thing in the world.’ (Cough … Appalachian State … Cough). But it’s close when you are trying to stake a claim to a top 4 spot in the CFP.

Then Michigan lost to Ohio State, in a game that was essentially a playoff game:  You win and you are in; you lose and you are out. Michigan lost. They’re out.

There’s a lot of ways this could theoretically play out, but there’s only a few within the realm of legitimacy. So headed into the final weekend, here’s how I see it.

#1 Alabama plays #15 Florida for the SEC Championship tomorrow. With a win, ‘Bama is the #1 seed. With a loss, they might still be the #1 seed, that is if the world doesn’t come to an end. It is likely that there is a greater chance of the world ending than ‘Bama losing to Florida.

#2 OSU is idle. They have the strange benefit of not playing a conference championship which means they can’t lose. Given that, it will be hard to justify demoting by three spots (from #2 to #5) an 11-1 team that doesn’t lose, especially when that team is widely considered a top 4 team. 

#3 Clemson plays Virginia Tech. With a win they are in, probably at #3. A loss almost certainly eliminates Clemson (and the ACC) from the CFP, unless the world ends (see above), in which case there will be no CFP.

Now the hard work begins.

#4 Washington (11-1) plays #8 Colorado (10-2) for the Pac 12 Championship. If Washington wins, they have a strong claim. They most likely become the fourth team, unless they win close and the B1G championship between Wisconsin and Penn State is decisive. Then the B1G champ might pass over Washington.

#5 in the CFP rankings is Michigan. Michigan is out except in one narrow scenario (keep reading). They are out because they lost very badly to Iowa and then lost to OSU. For those who want an expanded playoff, remember Michigan went to Columbus knowing a CFP berth was on the line and they lost. That was essentially a playoff game. There was no margin for error. They had a chance to play their way to the next round and they didn’t get it done. Having lost the game that would have gotten them in, they have no legitimate call for a rematch. If OSU was their only loss, they might still have claim, but an extremely weak one. But they lost to Iowa. They will have a nice New Year’s trip somewhere. It just won’t be the CFP.

#6 and #7, Wisconsin and Penn State play for the B1G championship. Winner has a strong claim to the CFP if Washington loses. Otherwise, the winner ends up at #5 or #6 and out. Of course, Michigan beat both of these teams (Wisconsin in a close one and Penn State in a blowout). But Michigan is still the fourth place (maybe third if you want to argue about it) B1G team because they didn’t win the games when everything was on the line. You don’t lose to Iowa, finish third in your division, and still have a claim to be the best team in the country.

#8 Colorado only gets in with a decisive win over Washington, a close game between Wisconsin and Penn State, and a kind-hearted committee. 

No one else has a shot.

So here’s my final call:

Alabama wins and is the #1 seed. OSU is idle and is the #2 or #3 seed. Clemson wins and stays #3 unless they win big in which case they might be #2. (#2 and #3 don’t matter since they play each other.) Washington wins and they are #4.

Now the “If”s.

If Washington loses a close one, a decisive winner of Wisconsin-Penn State gets in as the B1G champ.

If Colorado wins decisively over Washington and Wisconsin-Penn State is close and ugly, Colorado gets in at #4 as the Pac 12 champ.

“Wait,” you say, “Michigan beat Colorado.”

True. That’s the nightmare scenario for the committee. But here’s the question: Do you take a fourth place team in their conference over a conference champion in another conference even though the conference champion lost head to head? I don’t know. Football wise, probably.

But do you take a fourth place team over a conference champion in their own conference? I don’t see how.

So the B1G winner gets in over Michigan unless there is a total disaster in Indianapolis. Yes, Michigan beat them both, but championships matter to the committee.

My guess is that scenario remains purely hypothetical. Michigan’s only chance is that Colorado wins narrowly over Washington, Wisconsin-Penn State is an embarrassment in a close, low-scoring game, and the committee wants to avoid being harangued mercilessly by Michigan fans who apparently don’t think regular season games count for much. If so, the committee slides a two-loss Michigan team into the #4 slot over their own conference champ and over the Pac 12 conference champ. That’s a tall order.

In the end, I think ‘Bama, Clemson, and Washington win in a fairly decisive manner and the top four remain as they are right now.

If this plays out this way, and all remains as it is healthwise for these teams, I think Alabama beats Washington and Clemson beats OSU in a relatively close game. Then I think we have a rematch of last year’s title game.

If it doesn’t play out this way, forget I ever said it.

We will see on Sunday.