Expanded CFP

The call for an expanded college playoff is getting louder in a few places, mostly in places where people feel that their team got robbed.

Okay, mostly in Michigan and Pennsylvania.

What has passed quietly by is the fact that every single one of the top eight teams had a chance to play their way in. In other words, we had an expanded playoff and all but one team has no complaints. And that team would have no complaints had they not lost to Pitt and Michigan (by 473 or something I think it was).

The top 4 (Alabama, Clemson, OSU, and Washington) made it in by winning games.

Take the next four in the previous CFP Poll.

#5 Michigan would have been a top four with a win at OSU. They lost. They don’t get to go on. You don’t get redos.

#6 Wisconsin played #7 Penn State. This is arguably the team that got robbed because the winner didn’t make it. My previous comments stand true that it had to be a big win, and it wasn’t. Of course, they lost to Pitt and lost bigly to Michigan. But they had a chance to play their way in and didn’t get it done.

#8 Colorado played Washington and lost. They don’t get to go on.

The consensus, correct I believe, is that the CFP got the best four teams. The teams that didn’t make it all have blemishes that prevented them from making it.

So an expanded playoff took place this year. It worked just like it should have.

There is also a renewed call for having to win your conference to get in to the CFP. This is mostly coming from Penn State, but others are chiming in as well.

Someone that I can’t recall pointed out last night that Penn State better be careful what they wish for. There is a good chance that they could go 11-1 next year with their only loss being a close game at OSU who goes on to win the B1G. I think that is the most likely scenario for next season for both teams.

And that means Penn State’s chance next year requires the ability for the committee to jump over conference champions for better teams.

In other words, the very thing Penn State wants now is the thing that will hang them next year.

I am mixed on both of these issues.

I go back and forth on whether an eight team playoff would be good. This year it worked out fine. Next year it might not.

I think an expanded playoff devalues the regular season. Michigan would have gone to OSU knowing it didn’t matter whether they won or lost; they were in either way most likely (even with the Iowa embarrassment). While a rivalry game is always big, it is less big when you don’t have to win to be the national champion.

An expanded playoff devalues the conference title games. Why play a game if all the conference winners get in anyway?

However, an eight-team playoff would give some room in seasons where teams don’t play each other, or where a deserving conference champion loses out.

Speaking of conference champions, I think there is a strong case to be made that you can’t be the national champion unless you are first a conference champion. And by and large, I think that is true. OSU should have won against Penn State, and perhaps would have except for a call or two that went against them. (Remember Meyer’s tirades about officiating? Yeah, me neither.) But OSU seems a better team than Penn State.

If the NCAA goes to an eight team playoff, perhaps they need to do away with conference title games.

In the end, college football is good because of the debates that take place. There will always be questions about whether Michigan, or Colorado, or Oklahoma, or Penn State could have beaten Clemson, or Ohio State, or Washington in a playoff. There might even be a few debates about whether any of these teams could beat Alabama. Those debates will mostly involve people too drunk to speak clearly.

In the end, we have the four best teams. Let’s line up and play football.

The College Football Playoff

The college football season is down to the end. Two weeks ago everything was a mess when the #2, 3, and 4 all lost the same weekend as Washington lost to USC, Clemson lost to Pitt on a last second field goal, and Michigan lost to Iowa on the same thing.

Now it’s the final weekend and the playoff picture has been significantly clarified in the past few weeks as Louisville and Michigan stumbled to the finish line.

Both were, at some point, considered among the top 4. Some thought Louisville was better than Clemson even though Clemson beat them. Louisville put that argument to bed when they got embarrassed at Houston.

Michigan was the best team in the country according to some, or at least the only team that could challenge Alabama. Then they lost to Iowa.

Yes, you read that right. Iowa.

Losing to Iowa isn’t the worst thing in the world.’ (Cough … Appalachian State … Cough). But it’s close when you are trying to stake a claim to a top 4 spot in the CFP.

Then Michigan lost to Ohio State, in a game that was essentially a playoff game:  You win and you are in; you lose and you are out. Michigan lost. They’re out.

There’s a lot of ways this could theoretically play out, but there’s only a few within the realm of legitimacy. So headed into the final weekend, here’s how I see it.

#1 Alabama plays #15 Florida for the SEC Championship tomorrow. With a win, ‘Bama is the #1 seed. With a loss, they might still be the #1 seed, that is if the world doesn’t come to an end. It is likely that there is a greater chance of the world ending than ‘Bama losing to Florida.

#2 OSU is idle. They have the strange benefit of not playing a conference championship which means they can’t lose. Given that, it will be hard to justify demoting by three spots (from #2 to #5) an 11-1 team that doesn’t lose, especially when that team is widely considered a top 4 team. 

#3 Clemson plays Virginia Tech. With a win they are in, probably at #3. A loss almost certainly eliminates Clemson (and the ACC) from the CFP, unless the world ends (see above), in which case there will be no CFP.

Now the hard work begins.

#4 Washington (11-1) plays #8 Colorado (10-2) for the Pac 12 Championship. If Washington wins, they have a strong claim. They most likely become the fourth team, unless they win close and the B1G championship between Wisconsin and Penn State is decisive. Then the B1G champ might pass over Washington.

#5 in the CFP rankings is Michigan. Michigan is out except in one narrow scenario (keep reading). They are out because they lost very badly to Iowa and then lost to OSU. For those who want an expanded playoff, remember Michigan went to Columbus knowing a CFP berth was on the line and they lost. That was essentially a playoff game. There was no margin for error. They had a chance to play their way to the next round and they didn’t get it done. Having lost the game that would have gotten them in, they have no legitimate call for a rematch. If OSU was their only loss, they might still have claim, but an extremely weak one. But they lost to Iowa. They will have a nice New Year’s trip somewhere. It just won’t be the CFP.

#6 and #7, Wisconsin and Penn State play for the B1G championship. Winner has a strong claim to the CFP if Washington loses. Otherwise, the winner ends up at #5 or #6 and out. Of course, Michigan beat both of these teams (Wisconsin in a close one and Penn State in a blowout). But Michigan is still the fourth place (maybe third if you want to argue about it) B1G team because they didn’t win the games when everything was on the line. You don’t lose to Iowa, finish third in your division, and still have a claim to be the best team in the country.

#8 Colorado only gets in with a decisive win over Washington, a close game between Wisconsin and Penn State, and a kind-hearted committee. 

No one else has a shot.

So here’s my final call:

Alabama wins and is the #1 seed. OSU is idle and is the #2 or #3 seed. Clemson wins and stays #3 unless they win big in which case they might be #2. (#2 and #3 don’t matter since they play each other.) Washington wins and they are #4.

Now the “If”s.

If Washington loses a close one, a decisive winner of Wisconsin-Penn State gets in as the B1G champ.

If Colorado wins decisively over Washington and Wisconsin-Penn State is close and ugly, Colorado gets in at #4 as the Pac 12 champ.

“Wait,” you say, “Michigan beat Colorado.”

True. That’s the nightmare scenario for the committee. But here’s the question: Do you take a fourth place team in their conference over a conference champion in another conference even though the conference champion lost head to head? I don’t know. Football wise, probably.

But do you take a fourth place team over a conference champion in their own conference? I don’t see how.

So the B1G winner gets in over Michigan unless there is a total disaster in Indianapolis. Yes, Michigan beat them both, but championships matter to the committee.

My guess is that scenario remains purely hypothetical. Michigan’s only chance is that Colorado wins narrowly over Washington, Wisconsin-Penn State is an embarrassment in a close, low-scoring game, and the committee wants to avoid being harangued mercilessly by Michigan fans who apparently don’t think regular season games count for much. If so, the committee slides a two-loss Michigan team into the #4 slot over their own conference champ and over the Pac 12 conference champ. That’s a tall order.

In the end, I think ‘Bama, Clemson, and Washington win in a fairly decisive manner and the top four remain as they are right now.

If this plays out this way, and all remains as it is healthwise for these teams, I think Alabama beats Washington and Clemson beats OSU in a relatively close game. Then I think we have a rematch of last year’s title game.

If it doesn’t play out this way, forget I ever said it.

We will see on Sunday.

On the Championship Game

Last night, Alabama defeated Clemson 45-40 to win the NCAA Football National Championship. It was a good game. It was probably the best championship game since Texas-USC. Two good teams came to play hard.

I still marvel at those who claimed Alabama was going to win big or win going away. I never thought that. If there was a blowout or a big margin, I thought it would be in Clemson’s favor because of their explosive offense. But I thought it would be a close game. And it was.

They say defense wins championships. Well, there was a lot of offense last night. Over a combined one thousand yards. Clemson’s DeShaun Watson passed for 405 and ran for 73 more. Alabama’s Jake Coker passed for 335 and Derrick Henry ran for 158.

But the big problem for Clemson was big play. Clemson simply gave up too many.

Here’s the stat of the night: For Alabama, just six plays accounted for 280 yards. When you add in the return touchdown of 95 yards, that means that 375 of Alabama’s 473 yards came on just seven plays. That’s right: 80% of the offensive production came on seven plays.

Some of those receivers were so wide open in Arizona that I could have completed a pass from my living room couch in Michigan.

It is hard to win when you give that up.

There was a clear officiating blunder that may have made a difference. At the end of the first half, the clock failed to stop on Clemson’s first down, which made them waste a time out and cost them at least one play. A 44-yard field goal attempt was blocked. Give them the extra play they should have had and that field goal may have been shorter and easier. And that means a five point deficit is now two points. But the officials were bailed out of that by the final score. Of course, if the game is three points closer, both teams are playing differently.

The onsides kick was a gutsy call and Swinney threw a fit about it. He may have a good case. His argument was that in the Clemson-USC game in 2014, Clemson had recovered an onside kick only to have it overturned because they did not allow the receiver an unimpeded chance to recover the ball.

Here is the play starting at the 28:00 mark:

What was the right call? I am not sure.

The NCAA rule book Rule 6 Article 3 (p. FR-64) specifies that “No Team A [kicking tean] player may touch a free-kicked ball until after: 1. It touches a Team B player (Exception: Rules 6-1-4 and 6-5-1-b); 2. It breaks the plane of and remains beyond Team B’s restraining line (Exception: Rule 6-4-1) (A.R. 2-12-5-I); or 3. It touches any player, the ground, an official or anything beyond Team B’s restraining line.”

However, it also specifies “A player of the receiving team within the boundary lines attempting to catch a kick, and so located that he could have caught a free kick or a scrimmage kick that is beyond the neutral zone, must be given an unimpeded opportunity to catch the kick.”

The play last night did not appear to have a receiving team player attempting to make the catch or in a position to make the catch, although it is possible he could have made a diving catch. It’s hard to tell how far away he was.

In the end, it’s hard to say the better team won. But it would have been equally hard to say that if Clemson had won. Clemson won in almost every statiscal category except time of possession where Bama edged them by less than a minute. But Bama won in the only place that matters—the scoreboard.

Everything But the Band …

The Saturday game between Miami and Duke had everything but the band.

Oh, and competent officiating.

Now, I am not one to complain about officiating. In fact, I only complain when they are bad. I realize that sets me apart from everyone else, but I gotta draw a line somewhere. And “bad” is where that line is.

But I digress. The last play was amazing. Eight laterals and a touchdown later, Miami wins 30-27.

Then the replay process started.

Nine minutes later, Miami is still the winner.

Then the league got involved.

Twenty-four hours later, Miami is still the winner, but now with a huge asterisk.

The league admits that the officials got it wrong both on the field and on the replay. A Miami player was down prior to his lateral, meaning that the game should have ended right there with Duke having won.

The league takes this so seriously that they suspended the whole officiating crew, replay officials included, for two games.

But they don’t take it seriously enough to actually fix the problem. And the result is that Duke is hung out to dry. With a win, Duke controls their own destiny. Run the table and show up to be a sacrificial lamb for Clemson in the ACC championship. With one loss (that the league declared wasn’t actually a loss), they can still get there, but it’s harder now.

Here’s the thing (and I have changed my opinion on this slightly): The ACC can and should fix this. They should declare Duke the winner. Because they already did declare Duke the winner. The only place they haven’t declared it is in the only place that matters—the standings.

Let me use a golf illustration. A player hits his second shot on a par 4 over a hill towards the green. He walks up to putt and can’t find his ball. He declares it lost and goes back and plays another ball which would now be his fourth shot (because of the penalty). This time he putts and makes the putt for a bogey, only to find that his original ball is in the hole.

What’s the ruling?

It’s a birdie, not a bogey.

Why? Because under the rules, the hole is over when the ball goes in the hole, even if you don’t know it. Thus, the second ball no longer matters.

In the Miami-Duke game, the game was over when his knee hit the ground. No matter how many laterals, yards, minutes, or days later, the game was still over. The rest of the play was nothing but exercise.

There were no other plays that perhaps could have changed the outcome of the game.

It’s not a judgment call in which you are undermining the officials by second-guessing their ruling (such as a pass interference call, as Lions’ fans [if there are any left] will remember).

No, this is black and white. A game-ender. Duke won.

The ACC should agree with their conclusion and fix the standings. Give Duke what they earned—which is the opportunity to control their own destiny.