Since it’s election day here in the US and so many people have been asking me for my predictions, … okay, well, actually no one has asked me, but it’s a day of politics and why not just make something up so I can fit in with the people on the ballot?
So what happens this election day?
My guess is that Romney wins, by a decent margin in the popular vote (probably 52-53% of the total) and probably 280-310 electoral votes. I don’t think it is as close as some are saying. I could detail my reasoning here, but most of my readers wouldn’t follow the technical analysis, and besides, it would involve making something else up (since I don’t actually have any analysis, technical or not). Since I really want to limit making stuff up to once per post, and I have already used that once up, I will refrain from offering analysis, and just say, “Trust me on this one.”
If Romney doesn’t win, I think Obama will probably win. But I think it will be closer than if Romney wins. Obama, if he wins, will probably get less than 50% of the popular vote (probably 49-50%), but will win Ohio and Wisconsin which will put him over 270 but under 290. I am going to further predict that if Obama loses the popular vote and wins the electoral college, the Democratic calls for the abolishing of the electoral college such as happened in 2000 will probably be attributed to drunken orgies or something. They might even plausibly be attributed to the Republicans, since everything seems to be their fault.
My guess is that if Romney wins, there will be widespread accusations of voter fraud, something former Democratic chairman Howard Dean is already claiming.
If so, it will be a remarkable reversal since the Democrats have been consistently telling us that voter fraud is very rare, if it happens at all. In fact, there is no need to even worry about it, they tell us in the courts, as they fight against laws designed to protect against voter fraud.
But knowing Howard Dean as I do (he’s a politician which is all we need to know), he will have a perfectly straight face when he claims there is voter fraud and there is no voter fraud at the same time.
And then he will make some unintelligible yell at the end of it. “Arrrrgghhh!!!”
In related news, former President Bill Clinton campaigned for Obama asking if voters really want a president who will “knowingly, repeatedly tell you something that’s not true.” I would attempt to make a joke here, but it’s way too easy. I like challenges so I will skip this one.
And the answer is obviously yes, as evidenced by the fact that we keep on electing politicians.
So go vote (and don’t forget to post it on Facebook because we are all waiting to find out, you know).
And when Romney wins, remember, you heard it here first.
And when Obama wins, remember, I predicted it.
Just trust me on this one.
I have never been wrong on predicting a winner of the 2012 presidential race.
I don’t think this will be my first time.